For months now, the County has been pounding the table with its “extraordinary circumstances” memo — warning of explosive growth and unsustainable development. But the real numbers from the Northeast Florida Homebuilders Association tell a very different story.
The number of new building permits in Nassau County has dropped back to 2015–2016 levels. That’s a full rewind — ten years back in time.
What the Data Shows
| Year | New Building Permits |
| 2015 | 700 |
| 2016 | 930 |
| 2017 | 854 |
| 2018 | 827 |
| 2019 | 924 |
| 2020 | 1028 |
| 2021 | 1710 |
| 2022 | 1292 |
| 2023 | 1039 |
| 2024 | 883 |
| 2025* | 655 (YTD) |
Data Source: Northeast Florida Homebuilders Association (calendar year, not county fiscal year) 2025 to date: 655 permits issued — with two months still left in the year.
The Reality Check
If new development has slowed this dramatically — and population growth is steady but not “exploding” — then why is the County using “extraordinary growth” as the reason for new taxes, higher fees, and “crisis mode” planning?
As we pointed out in our recent piece — The Sky is Falling Again article — the County’s narrative just doesn’t add up. They’re citing “rapid expansion” and “infrastructure emergencies,” while actual permit data from the professionals who track it shows the opposite.
So, What’s Really Going On?
Either:
1. The County is using outdated or misleading numbers,
2. They’re reclassifying existing home improvements or replacements as new growth, or
3. There’s a disconnect between county reporting and state-recognized data from the building industry.
Whatever the reason, it’s time to demand clarity. Taxpayers deserve to know where these “doomsday” numbers are coming from.
